U.S. employers are expected to continue adding jobs in the first quarter of 2013, but uncertainty over the “fiscal cliff” has tempered the outlook, according to a quarterly hiring survey by ManpowerGroup.
The global staffing services company’s outlook for U.S. jobs has been positive for 15 straight quarters, even as it weakens in most other economies.
A majority of U.S. employers polled did not expect any changes to their payrolls in the first quarter of 2013, said Jonas Prising, president of ManpowerGroup. Seventeen percent of U.S. employers anticipate adding workers, compared with 8 percent who believe they will have lay-offs.
“If you think about the ‘fiscal cliff’ and you’re an employer, you’re only going to hire what you need to hire,” he said, referring to the $600 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes that will kick in starting in January unless Congress reaches a budget compromise.
The seasonally adjusted U.S. net employment outlook — which measures the difference between employers who say they expect to add jobs and those planning to cut them — was plus-12 for the first quarter of 2013, up from plus-11 in the fourth quarter and plus-9 a year ago.
One unexpected bright spot was retail. Employers in the wholesale and retail sector anticipate adding jobs in the first quarter, a period when companies usually cut back following the holiday season.
“It’s a reflection that consumers are still feeling pretty good,” Prising said.
Manpower’s U.S. survey, which is 50 years old this year, is based on interviews with 18,000 employers. It is considered a leading indicator of labor market trends, but does not directly correlate with the monthly jobs numbers reported by the government.